China’s thermal coal imports reached a record high for the first two months of 2025, but growth slowed significantly compared to previous years.
Source: Coal Industry Resource Network
China’s thermal coal imports reached a record high for the first two months of 2025, but growth slowed significantly compared to previous years. Data from the General Administration of Customs shows that from January to February, China imported 57.27 million tons of thermal coal (non-coking coal), up just 1.14% from 56.63 million tons in the same period last year. While this marks the third consecutive year of year-on-year growth for early-year imports, the pace has dropped sharply from the 76.75% surge in early 2023 and the 19.13% rise in early 2024.
Several factors contributed to the weaker growth in imports. The early timing of this year’s Lunar New Year holiday, combined with milder-than-usual winter temperatures, kept residential power demand in check. As a result, coal stockpiles at coastal power plants and ports remained high, curbing the need for restocking. At the same time, hydropower output increased due to heavier rainfall in southern China, while solar, wind, and nuclear power generation also grew year-on-year. This intensified competition for coal-fired power, leading to a noticeable decline in coal consumption.
Domestic coal production was another major factor. In the first two months of the year, China’s raw coal output jumped 7.7% from a year earlier, the fastest pace in three years. This increase in domestic supply reduced the need for imports.
Another key reason for the slowdown was the narrowing price advantage of imported coal. Since late last year, domestic thermal coal prices have been on a downward trend, while international suppliers have held firm on pricing, anticipating tighter supply conditions in the seaborne market. As a result, imported coal—especially mid-calorific-value grades—lost its price advantage over domestic coal, dampening buying interest from Chinese importers.
Lignite accounted for the largest share of thermal coal imports, with January-February shipments reaching 28.62 million tons, up 7.83% year-on-year. Lignite made up 37.59% of total coal imports and half of all thermal coal imports during the period.
By country of origin, Indonesia, Australia, Russia, Mongolia, and the Philippines remained China’s top five suppliers, accounting for 99.7% of total thermal coal imports. Indonesia remained the dominant source, shipping 34.14 million tons, down 5.05% year-on-year, but still accounting for 59.6% of total thermal coal imports. Australia ranked second, exporting 10.29 million tons, up 11.8% from a year earlier, with an 18% market share.
Since March, the price gap between imported and domestic thermal coal has continued to shrink. With the winter heating season ending in northern China and demand entering a seasonal lull, combined with persistently high coal inventories at coastal power plants, short-term demand for imported thermal coal is likely to remain under pressure. Imports for the first quarter of 2025 are projected to decline by 15% year-on-year. Looking ahead, demand for seaborne coal could remain weak as renewable energy generation continues to grow, domestic coal production expands, and improved rail transport boosts imports of Russian and Mongolian coal.
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